Breaking Down the 2013 Best Actress Race

This Oscar season has been one of the most exciting and unpredictable races in recent history. While it seems that Argo, Daniel Day-Lewis and Anne Hathaway now look like sure things in their respective categories, there are a few races that remain a serious horse race. The two biggest question marks are the Best Supporting Actor race where a different contender has won in each of the precursors (Tommy Lee Jones, Phillip Seymour Hoffman and Christoph Waltz) and the Best Actress Race which has been a serious catfight between Jessica Chastain and Jennifer Lawrence. Today, I will take a look at the latter race which could end up with a truly surprising winner.
When the race began in earnest last fall, the word was that Jennifer Lawrence would win hands down for her wonderful, emotionally naked work in Silver Linings Playbook. However, that was before the very secretive Zero Dark Thirty finally began screening and Jessica Chastain’s fierce, intelligent and controlled performance wowed critics and audiences. Both women have won a number of pre-cursors that have put them squarely in a duel for the Oscar win. Among the biggest wins, Lawrence took home the Golden Globe (Musical/Comedy), Critic’s Choice (Actress in a Comedy Film) and the all-important SAG Award while Chastain grabbed a Golden Globe (Drama) and the overall Critic’s Choice Award for Best Actress.
They are both up for the BAFTA Award this evening as well. I’d say Chastain has the edge there as her film received more nominations from the British Academy and they tend to honor more “important” films and performances. For example, last year Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady) took home the Best Actress BAFTA over Viola Davis (The Help) after Davis had just won the SAG Award… I could see the same turnover happen here for Chastain. If that happens, then Chastain could follow Streep’s path to an Oscar victory.
Both Chastain and Lawrence have several factors working in their favor. Both women are attractive young actresses with a “babe factor” that the Academy loves, reaching a peak in their careers which has helped actresses like Halle Berry, Reese Witherspoon, Gwyneth Paltrow and Nicole Kidman to take home the big prize in the past. Both are also previous nominees. Chastain was nominated last year for Supporting Actress for The Help while Lawrence was nominated for Best Actress two years ago for Winter’s Bone. Plus, both have worked the awards circuit like a pro this season.
Where they differ is in their “industry status”. While Lawrence is now a bona-fide box office star with The Hunger Games franchise, Chastain is seen as the more serious actress with a bigger body of lauded work. She could’ve received Oscar noms for practically all of her seven films released in 2011 and Chastain is also building box office clout with hits ZD30, The Help and Mama. It just seems like it may be too “early” in Lawrence’s career to give her Hollywood’s highest honor while Chastain seems to have “earned” it more. So, with all of that said, I’m going out on a limb and giving the edge to Chastain for the win.
However there remains one big obstacle in their way. They both will have to fend off another critical favorite, French icon Emmanuelle Riva for her harrowing and physically demanding work as a woman suffering from Dementia at the end of her life in Amour. This performance could be the real key to this Oscar race. Riva could easily usurp both of them at the BAFTAs and set the stage for a crazy three-way fight on Oscar night.
As for the final two nominees, Quevanzhane Wallis should be thrilled she got a nomination in the first place for her debut performance in Beasts of the Southern Wild over more deserving heavy weights like Marion Cotillard (Rust & Bone) and Helen Mirren (Hitchcock), and while she was amazing in The Impossible, and I’d love to see her win, Naomi Watts will probably be an also ran. (No worries though Naomi, you should be back in the race next year for playing Princess Diana!)
To sum up, it’s a serious race this year. Lawrence and Chastain are in the best position to win with Riva as a potential spoiler. And if there is crazy vote splitting, maybe Watts can sneak in. Yet, I’m still betting on Chastain. See if I’m right Sunday night February 24th when the Oscars air on ABC.

It’s My Big Bold Golden Globe Nomination Predictions 2012!

The past week or so has been a whirlwind of activity in this year’s awards derby and tomorrow will continue that momentum with the announcement of this year’s Golden Globe nominees… Expect to see a lot of the names you’ve heard so far this season like Lincoln, Les Miserables, and Argo. However, you may see some big stars in the race as the Globes love them a star… Does that mean something as crazy as Tom Cruise (Rock of Ages) and Julia Roberts (Mirror Mirror) getting nominated for Lead Acting honors in the Musical or Comedy category? It might. I think more discerning minds will prevail, but we will see…. So, just who do I think will hear their name tomorrow morning? Check out my predictions in all the major categories (Film and Television) below and check back here tomorrow for the actual nominees!

My Big Bold 2012 Golden Globe Nomination Predictions~

FILM

Best Picture Drama:
Argo, Django Unchained, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Zero Dark Thirty
~ spoilers: The Impossible, Skyfall, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Best Picture Musical/Comedy:
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, Les Miserables, Moonrise Kingdom, Quartet, Silver Linings Playbook
~Ted, The Perks of Being A Wallflower

Best Actor Drama:
Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln), Anthony Hopkins (Hitchcock), John Hawkes (The Sessions), Joaquin Phoenix (The Master), Denzel Washington (Flight)
~spoilers: Richard Gere (Arbitrage)

Best Actress Drama:
Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty), Marion Cotillard (Rust & Bone), Keira Knightley (Anna Karenina), Helen Mirren (Hitchcock), Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
~spoilers: Emmanuelle Riva (Amour), Quevanzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)

Best Actor Musical/Comedy:
Jack Black (Bernie), Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook), Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables), Tommy Lee Jones (Hope Springs), Bill Murray (Hyde Park on Hudson)
~spoilers: Logan Lerman (The Perks of Being a Wallflower), Paul Rudd (This is 40), Mark Wahlberg (Ted)

Best Actress Musical/Comedy:
Judi Dench (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel), Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook), Meryl Streep (Hope Springs), Barbra Streisand (The Guilt Trip), Maggie Smith (Quartet)
~ spoilers: Anna Kendrick (Pitch Perfect), Mary Elizabeth Winstead (Smashed), Leslie Mann (This is 40)

Best Supporting Actor:
Robert DeNiro (Silver Linings Playbook), Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained), Phillip Seymour Hoffman (The Master), Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln), Eddie Redmayne (Les Miserables)
~ spoilers: Alan Arkin (Argo), Matthew McConaughey (Magic Mike), Javier Bardem (Skyfall), Ewan MacGregor (The Impossible)

Best Supporting Actress:
Samantha Barks (Les Miserables), Sally Field (Lincoln), Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables), Helen Hunt (The Sessions), Maggie Smith (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)
~spoilers: Amy Adams (The Master), Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy)

Best Director:
Ben Affleck (Argo), Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty), Ang Lee (Life of Pi), Tom Hooper (Les Miserables), Steven Speilberg (Lincoln)
~Spoilers: Juan Antoino Bayona (The Impossible), David O’Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)

Best Screenplay:
Argo, Django Unchained, Lincoln, Moonrise Kingdom, Silver Linings Playbook
~spoilers: Zero Dark Thirty, The Perks of Being a Wallflower, Flight

TV~

Drama Series:
Breaking Bad, Downton Abbey, Game of Thrones, Homeland, Mad Men, The Newsroom
~spoilers: Boardwalk Empire, Smash, Scandal

Comedy Series:
Episodes, Girls, New Girl, Modern Family, The New Normal, Veep
~spoilers: Parks & Recreation, The Big Bang Theory

Actor Drama Series:
Hugh Bonneville (Downton Abbey), Bryan Cranston (Breaking Bad), Jeff Daniels (The Newsroom), Michael C. Hall (Dexter), Jon Hamm (Mad Men), Damian Lewis (Homeland)
~spoilers: Steve Buscemi (Boardwalk Empire), Johnny Lee Miller (Elementary)

Actress Drama Series:
Clare Danes (Homeland), Michelle Dockrey (Downton Abbey), Juliana Marguiles (The Good Wife), Emily Mortimer (The Newsroom), Kerry Washington (Scandal)
~spoilers: Glenn Close (Damages), Connie Britton(Nashville)

Actor Comedy Series:
Alec Baldwin (30 Rock), Louie C.K. (Louie), Matt LeBlanc (Episodes), Matthew Perry (Go On), Andrew Rannells (The New Normal), Jim Parsons (The Big Bang Theory)
~spoilers: David Duchovny (Californication), Johnny Galecki (The Big Bang Theory)

Actress Comedy Series:
Tina Fey (30 Rock), Zooey Deschanel (New Girl), Lena Dunham (Girls), Julia Louis Dreyfuss (Veep), Mindy Kailing (The Mindy Project), Amy Poehler (Parks & Recreation)
~spoilers: Edie Falco (Nurse Jackie), Laura Linney (The Big C)

TV Movie/Miniseries:
American Horror Story: Asylum, Game Change, Hemingway & Gelhorn, Political Animals, Sherlock
~spoilers: That Girl, Hatfields & McCoys

Actor TV Movie/Miniseries:
Kenneth Branaugh (Wallander), Benedict Cumberpatch (Sherlock), Kevin Costner (Hatfields & McCoys), Woody Harrelson (Game Change), Clive Owen (Hemingway & Gelhorn)
~spoilers: Toby Jones (That Girl), Bill Paxton (Hatfields & McCoys)

Actress TV Movie/Miniseries:
Nicole Kidman (Hemingway & Gelhorn), Jessica Lange (American Horror Story: Asylum), Sienna Miller (That Girl), Julianne Moore (Game Change), Sigourney Weaver (Political Animals)
~spoilers: Queen Latifah (Steel Magnolias)

Supporting Actor TV Movie/Miniseries/Drama or Comedy Series:
Peter Dinklage (Game of Thrones), Max Greenfield (New Girl), Ed Harris (Game Change), Aaron Paul (Breaking Bad), Eric Stonestreet (Modern Family),
~ spoilers: Sam Waterston (The Newsroom), Ty Burrell (Modern Family), Mandy Patinkin (Homeland)

Supporting Actress TV Movie/Miniseries/Drama or Comedy Series:
Morena Baccarin (Homeland), Ellen Barkin (The New Normal), Ellen Burstyn (Political Animals), Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey), Sofia Vergara (Modern Family)
~spoilers: Julie Bowen (Modern Family), Anna Gunn (Breaking Bad), Debra Messing (Smash)

So, that’s why Aaron Eckhart is so Buff!

If you’ve seen Aaron Eckhart in his Golden Globe nominated performance in Thank You For Smoking or his Independent Spirit Award winning performance in In the Company of Men, you know what a great actor he is. But, you’ve probably also noticed what a sexy and enigmatic man he is too. If you catch him in the brilliant and emotional new film Rabbit Hole alongside Golden Globe nominee Nicole Kidman, you’ll see him in another wonderful searing performance as half of a couple dealing with the loss of their child. However, I think you might just notice how incredibly ripped up and buff he is in the film too. This had me wondering why would his character be in such incredible shape. Now, you do see him work out, but I just found the answer…. Aaron was getting ready for his next film the action sci-fi epic Battle Los Angeles where he plays a military leader fighting an alien invasion. This likely blockbuster opens on March 11th and costars Bridget Monyhan and Michelle Rodriguez as , not so shockingly, a soldier.It actually looks pretty fantastic. I don’t know if it will be as amazing and gripping of a movie as Rabbit Hole is, but for an action film, I’m optimistic. Take a look for yourself at the trailers for both Battle Los Angeles and Rabbit Hole below and catch Rabbit in theatres now…  And if I had my way, Rabbit Hole would grab nominations for Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Actor (Eckhart) and Actress (Kidman). Unfortunately, the buzz seems to be that only Kidman and possibly the screenplay will make the final cut. We’ll see when the Oscar noms are announced next month.

Battle Los Angeles

Rabbit Hole

Halle Berry goes Crazy for Oscar

She won an Oscar for her dramatic and emotional work in Monster’s Ball and now, Halle Berry, is aiming for a bookend. In her new film, Frankie & Alice, which she co-produced, Berry plays a woman struggling with multiple personality disorder. Judging from the trailer for this psychological thriller, Berry looks like she will be a strong contender for this year’s race. Unfortunately, it’s perhaps the most crowded Best Actress race in history (or at least in the last few decades). You see you have front-runners Annette Bening (The Kids are Alright), Julianne Moore (The Kids Are Alright), Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone), Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole), Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine) and Natalie Portman (Black Swan) to contend with. Then comes another tier of deserving ladies including Lesley Manville (Another Year), Hilary Swank (Conviction), Diane Lane (Secretariat), Anne Hathaway (Love and Other Drugs), Sally Hawkins (Made in Dagenham) along with wild cards Tilda Swinton (I Am Love), Naomi Watts (Fair Game), and Reese Witherspoon (How Do You Know?). We’ll see how Halle fairs in the weeks ahead as the film hits theatres in late December. I think she’s a lock for a Golden Globe Drama nom, but may slip through the cracks at Oscar time unless she does some serious campaigning (which she’s already doing). Take a look at Halle in the new trailer for Frankie & Alice below and let me know if you think she can break into the Best Actress race this year.

Frankie & Alice trailer

The Kids are Alright and Winter’s Bone lead the Indie Spirit Noms

This morning, the ladies led the way at the Independent Spirit Award nominations as two films by female directors,The Kids are Alright and Winter’s Bone, grabbed the most nominations. Lisa Cholodenko’s Kids nabbed 5 nods including Picture, Director, Actress (Annette Bening) and Supporting Actor (Mark Ruffalo) while Winter’s netted 7 honors including Picture, Director (Debra Granik), Actress (Jennifer Lawrence), Supporting Actor (John Hawkes) and Supporting Actress (Dale Dickey). Other films with multiple noms included 127 Hours with 3 (Picture, Director, Lead Actor-Jame Franco), Black Swan with 4 (Picture, Director, Cinematography and Lead Actress- Natalie Portman), Greenberg with 4 (Picture, Director, Lead Actor- Ben Stiller, Lead Actress- Greta Gerwig) and Rabbit Hole with 4 (Director, Screenplay, Lead Actor- Aaron Eckhart, Lead Actress- Nicole Kidman).
Some notable snubs, that may affect their Oscar prospects, included Robert Duvall (Get Low), Keira Knightley and Carey Mulligan (Never Let Me Go), Julianne Moore (The Kids are Alright), Ryan Gosling (Blue Valentine), Jim Carrey (I Love You Phillip Morris) and Diane Weist (Rabbit Hole)…. Also, note Oscar front-runner The King’s Speech was only eligible in the Foreign Film category (where it was nomm’d) because it was not an American production. Take a look at the full nominee list below and watch for the winners when they’re announced at the Independent Spirit Awards on Feb. 26, 2011

BEST FEATURE

127 Hours
Black Swan
Greenberg
The Kids Are All Right
Winter’s Bone

BEST DIRECTOR

Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
Danny Boyle, 127 Hours
Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right
Debra Granik, Winter’s Bone
John Cameron Mitchell, Rabbit Hole

BEST MALE LEAD

Ronald Bronstein, Daddy Longlegs
Aaron Eckhart, Rabbit Hole
James Franco, 127 Hours
John C. Reilly, Cyrus
Ben Stiller, Greenberg

BEST FEMALE LEAD

Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Greta Gerwig, Greenberg
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine

BEST SUPPORTING MALE

John Hawkes, Winter’s Bone
Samuel L. Jackson, Mother and Child
Bill Murray, Get Low
John Ortiz, Jack Goes Boating
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right

BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE

Ashley Bell, The Last Exorcism
Dale Dickey, Winter’s Bone
Allison Janney, Life During Wartime
Daphne Rubin-Vega, Jack Goes Boating
Naomi Watts, Mother and Child

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Adam Kimmel, Never Let Me Go
Matthew Libatique, Black Swan
Jody Lee Lipes, Tiny Furniture
Michael McDonough, Winter’s Bone
Harris Savides, Greenberg

BEST DOCUMENTARY

Exit Through the Gift Shop
Marwencol
Restrepo
Sweetgrass
Thunder Soul

BEST FOREIGN FILM

Kisses
Mademoiselle Chambon
Of Gods and Men
The King’s Speech
Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives

BEST SCREENPLAY

Stuart Blumberg, Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right
Debra Granik, Anne Rosellini, Winter’s Bone
Nicole Holofcener, Please Give
David Lindsay-Abaire, Rabbit Hole
Todd Solondz, Life During Wartime

BEST FIRST FEATURE

Everything Strange and New
Get Low
Night Catches Us
The Last Exorcism
Tiny Furniture

BEST FIRST SCREENPLAY

Diane Bell, Obselidia
Lena Dunham, Tiny Furniture
Nik Fackler, Lovely, Still
Bob Glaudini, Jack Goes Boating
Dana Adam Shapiro, Evan M. Wiener, Monogamy

JOHN CASSAVETES AWARD

Daddy Longlegs
Lbs.
Lovers of Hate
Obselidia
The Exploding Girl

ACURA SOMEONE TO WATCH AWARD

Hossein Keshavarz, Dog Sweat
Laurel Nakadate, The Wolf Knife
Mike Ott, Littlerock

PIAGET PRODUCERS AWARD

In-Ah Lee, Au Revoir Taipei
Adele Romanski, The Myth of the American Sleepover
Anish Savjani, Meek’s Cutoff

AVEENO® TRUER THAN FICTION AWARD

Ilisa Barbash, Lucien Castaing-Taylor, Sweetgrass
Jeff Malmberg, Marwencol
Lynn True, Nelson Walker, Summer Pasture

ROBERT ALTMAN AWARD

Please Give
Director: Nicole Holofcener
Casting Director: Jeanne McCarthy
Ensemble Cast: Ann Guilbert, Rebecca Hall, Catherine Keener, Amanda Peet, Oliver Platt, Lois Smith, Sarah Steele

Today’s Oscar Contender: Nicole Kidman in Rabbit Hole

The Best Actress race just got a little tougher. With several contenders already solidifying their place in the race like Annette Bening (The Kids are Alright), Natalie Portman (Black Swan), Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone), Hilary Swank (Conviction), Diane Lane (Secretariat) and Julianne Moore (The Kids are Alright), they all better brace themselves for the power of Kidman. Nicole Kidman that is… She’s been nominated twice before for Moulin Rouge (the best movie ever!) and won for The Hours and has been in the race for her Golden Globe nominated dramatic turns in The Others, Cold Mountain, Billy Bathgate, and Birth and won Globes for her roles in The Hours, Moulin Rouge and To Die For. Now, she’s starring in the film adaptation of the Tony and Pulitzer Prize winning play Rabbit Hole as a grieving mother, a role which netted Cynthia Nixon (Sex and the City) a Tony Award. Judging from the trailer, Nicole is in fine form in what looks like a beautiful, heartbreaking, interesting and ultimately hopeful film. She’ll have plenty of support on-screen in fellow potential Oscar nominees Aaron Eckhart (a Globe nominee for Thank You for Smoking) and two-time Oscar winner Dianne Weist (Hannah and Her Sisters, Bullets over Broadway). Also in the cast are Emmy, Globe and SAG Award nominee Sandra Oh (Greys Anatomy, Sideways), Giancarlo Esposito (Breaking Bad), Jonn Tenney (The Closer) and Emmy winner Tammy Blanchard (Life with Judy Garland: Me and My Shadows). The film was directed by Golden Globe nominee John Cameron Michtell (Hedwig and the Angry Inch) and hits theatres on Dec. 17th. I expect this searing drama to be a big awards player in the coming months not only for Kidman, but in several big races. See for yourself with the trailer for Rabbit Hole below.

Rabbit Hole

Be Italian! “NINE” hits dvd and blu ray tomorrow!

My favorite movie of 2009 finally hits dvd and blu ray tomorrow, the gorgeous musical Nine. Now, I know it got mixed reviews from a lot of critics and movie goers, but I blame that more on the source material. The stage musical is a very introspective tale about a filmmaker and the women that influence his life. It’s not the most easily adaptable piece, nor the most accessible show around. Nonetheless, the film is beautifully shot and features incredible performances by the heartbreakingly brilliant Marion Cottilard and sexy Oscar nominated Penelope Cruz. Plus, there are fierce numbers by Kate Hudson and Fergie who practically steals the show. Oscar winners Nicole Kidman, Sophia Loren, Judi Dench and Daniel Day-Lewis round out the cast. I highly recommend this film that grabbed 4 Oscar noms, 5 Golden Globe noms and 10 Critic’s Choice noms. For more on the film, directed by Rob Marshall (Chicago), and how to buy it, click here. And I’ve included a couple of the best numbers from the film below. BE ITALIAN indeed!

Fergie “Be Italian”

Kate Hudson “Cinema Italian”

Penelope Cruz “A Call from the Vatican”