My Still Very Early November Oscar Predictions…

It’s almost Thanksgiving and the Oscar race is in full swing. Several big contenders are currently in theatres (Moneyball, The Descendants, The Help) and a couple open this week (The Artist, My Week with Marilyn). In fact all but three of the biggies (War Horse, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo) have screened at festivals or for critics and media and those final ponies have such strong pedigrees that have to be considered front-runners nonetheless. With that said, check out my new predictions, my Oct predix and let me know what you think will grab the gold early next year. Also note, I have ranked them in order of likelihood of getting a nomination and watch for big changes as the critics awards and SAG and Golden Globe nominations start to come in. (Heck, J. Edgar is pretty much out of all the races now after a poor opening and rough critical reception. At least Leo still stands a chance)…

Best Picture:
1. The Artist
2. The Descendants
3. War Horse
4. The Help
5. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
6. Moneyball
7. Midnight in Paris
8. Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
~spoilers: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt. 2, My Week with Marilyn, The Adventures of Tin Tin, The Ides of March
*Note : this year the rules have changed again and the Best Picture nominees will vary from 5-10 films depending on the amount of support they get. (There’s a whole lot of weird math mumbojumbo involved). I feel like it will end up with 7 or 8.

Best Actor:
1. George Clooney (The Descendants)
2. Jean Dujardin (The Artist)~ new to the list
3. Brad Pitt (Moneyball)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio (J. Edgar)
5. Woody Harrelson (Rampart)
~spoilers: Gary Oldman (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy), Michael Fassbender (Shame), Ryan Gosling (Drive)

Best Actress:
1. Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)
2. Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn)
3. Viola Davis (The Help)
4. Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs)
5. Elizabeth Olsen (Martha Marcy May Marlene)
~spoilers: Rooney Mara (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo), Charlize Theron (Young Adult), Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk About Kevin), Keira Knightley (A Dangerous Method)

Best Supporting Actor:
1. Christopher Plummer (Beginners)
2. Kenneth Branagh (My Week with Marilyn)
3. Max VonSydow (Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close)
4. John Hawkes (Martha Marcy May Marlene)
5. Albert Brooks (Drive) ~ new
~spoilers: Jim Broadbent (The Iron Lady), George Clooney (The Ides of March), Alan Rickman (Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt. 2), Patton Oswalt (Young Adult), Armie Hammer (J. Edgar), Nick Nolte (Warrior), Jonah Hill (Moneyball)
* this category remains very crowded and unclear with only Plummer a serious lock right now

Best Supporting Actress:
1. Octavia Spencer (The Help)
2. Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs) ~ new
3. Vanessa Redgrave (Corolianus)~ new
4. Jessica Chastain (The Help)
5. Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids) ~new
~spoilers:  Berncie Bejo (The Artist), Shailene Woodley (The Descendants), Jessica Chastain (The Tree of Life), Robin Wright (Rampart), Sandra Bullock (Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close), Angelica Huston (50/50), Judy Greer (The Descendants)

* This is the next category that is most up in the air with so many worthy contenders

Best Director:
1. Steven Speilberg (War Horse)
2. Michael Havinicius (The Artist) ~ new
3. Alexander Payne (The Descendants)
4. David Fincher (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
5. Tate Taylor (The Help)~ new
~spoilers: Stephen Daldry (Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close), Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris), Bennett Miller (Moneyball)

Best Original Screenplay:
1. The Artist
2. Midnight in Paris
3. Beginners
4. Young Adult ~ new
5. Bridesmaids (oh yes I said it!) ~ new
~spoilers: J. Edgar, Rampart, Rango, Martha Marcy May Marlene

Best Adapted Screenplay:
1. The Descendants
2. The Help
3. War Horse
4. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
5. Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
~spoilers: My Week with Marilyn, Albert Nobbs, The Ides of March, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy


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2 Responses to “My Still Very Early November Oscar Predictions…”

  1. jasonboegh Says:

    And here’s the link to my October predictions:

  2. Henrick V Says:

    I think you should be allowed to cast your own votes for the Oscars, or actually produce the Telecast. I bet you’d shake up the sleepy show and the nominations :o)

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