They’re Here~ My Big Bold 2013 Oscar WINNER Predictions

It’s been one heck of a topsy-turvy Oscar season. Since September, there seemed to be a different film out in front each week with Lincoln, Les Miserables, Argo, Zero Dark Thirty and Silver Linings Playbook all looking like the film to beat. However, after all of the Guild Awards (SAG, DGA, PGA) and the Golden Globes, it has become clear that Argo is the true front-runner and likely will win Best Picture. If it does, it will be the first film to do so without a Best Director nomination since Driving Miss Daisy in 1989. And it may also be one of the only wins the film takes home. It has a shot in Screenplay, Editing and Score, but we’ll see… There are other sure things but there are 3 big races totally up in the air and we may see the awards spread over several different films… So, just who do I think will win? Take a look at my big, bold and totally unscientific Oscar predictions below and watch the big Academy Award show Sunday the 24th on ABC.

Best Picture:
Amour, Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Django Unchained, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Zero Dark Thirty
Will win: Argo
Should win: Les Miserables
~ spoiler: Lincoln

Best Actor:
Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook), Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln), Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables), Joaquin Phoenix (The Master), Denzel Washington (Flight)
Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Should win: Hugh Jackman (hello, degree of difficulty people)
~ spoiler: Hugh Jackman, but let’s be honest. Daniel Day-Lewis has this in the bag.

Best Actress:
Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty), Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook), Emmanuelle Riva (Amour), Quevanzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild), Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
Will win: Jennifer Lawrence
Should win: Jessica Chastain
~ spoiler: Emmanuelle Riva
* This race is really becoming a toss-up. Lawrence is the smart money, but many feel Chastain deserves it more and Riva has the growing buzz and would be the oldest Best Actress winner ever…

Best Supporting Actor:
Alan Arkin (Argo), Robert DeNiro (Silver Linings Playbook), Tommy Lee Jones (Licoln), Phillip Seymour Hoffman (The Master), Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)
Will win: Robert DeNiro
Should win: Tommy Lee Jones
~ spoiler: Christoph Waltz
* this is the biggest toss-up race of all. Any of the five could win (even Arkin if there’s an Argo sweep). Weinstein company is spending tons of $ to remind voters that DeNiro hasn’t won in 32 years, so I think that may give him the edge.

Best Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams (The Master), Sally Field (Lincoln), Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables), Helen Hunt (The Sessions), Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook)
Will & Should win: Anne Hathaway
~ spoiler: Sally Field, but let’s be honest Hathaway can not lose.

Best Director:
Michael Haeneke (Amour), Ang Lee (Life of Pi), David O’Russell (Silver Linings Playbook), Steven Spielberg (Lincoln), Benh Zeitlan (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Will win: Steven Speilberg
Should win: Ben Affleck, Kathryn Bigelow or Tom Hooper (oops they’re not nominated!)
~ spoiler: Ang Lee
* this race is also incredibly close with Spielberg, Lee and Russell all having a strong shot…

Best Original Screenplay:
Amour, Django Unchained, Flight, Moonrise Kingdom, Zero Dark Thirty
Will win: Django Unchained
Should win: Zero Dark Thirty
~spoiler: Amour

Adapted Screenplay:
Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook
Will win: Argo
Should win: Lincoln
~ spoiler: Silver Linings Playbook

Editing:
Argo, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Zero Dark Thirty
Will win: Argo
Should win: Zero Dark Thirty
~ spoiler: Zero Dark Thirty

Cinematography:
Anna Karenina, Django Unchained, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Skyfall
Will win: Life of Pi
Should win: Skyfall
~ spoiler: Skyfall

Production Design:
Anna Karenina, The Hobbit, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Lincoln
Will & Should win: Les Miserables
~ Spoiler: Anna Karenina

Costume Design:
Anna Karenina, Les Miserables, Lincoln, Mirror Mirror, Snow White and the Huntsman
Will & Should win: Anna Karenina
~ Spoiler: Les Miserables

Makeup & Hair:
The Hobbit, Les Miserables, Lincoln
Will & Should win: Les Miserables
~ spoiler: The Hobbit

Original Score:
Anna Karenina, Argo, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Skyfall
Will win: Life of Pi
Should win: Skyfall
~ spoiler: Lincoln (it’s John Williams after all)

Song:
“Before My Time” (Chasing Ice), “Everybody Need’s a Friend” (Ted), “Pi’s Lullably” (Life of Pi), “Skyfall” (Skyfall), “Suddenly” (Les Miserables)
Will & Should win: “Skyfall”
~ spoiler: “Suddenly”

Sound Editing:
Argo, Django Unchained, Life of Pi, Skyfall, Zero Dark Thirty
Will & Should win: Zero Dark Thirty
~ spoiler: Skyfall

Sound Mixing:
Argo, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Skyfall
Will & Should win: Les Miserables
~ spoiler: Life o Pi

Visual Effects:
The Avengers, The Hobbit, Life of Pi, Prometheus, Snow White and the Huntsman
Will win: Life of Pi
Should win: The Hobbit
~ spoiler: The Hobbit

Animated Film:
Brave, Frankenweenie, ParaNorman, The Pirates: Band of Misfits!, Wreck it Ralph
Will win: Wreck it Ralph
Should win: ParaNorman (but, hey Wreck It Ralph was pretty damn good)
~ spoiler: Frankenweenie

Foreign Language Film:
Amour, Kontiki, No, A Royal Affair, War Witch
Wil win: Amour
Should win: No
~ spoiler: A Royal Affair

Documentary:
5 Broken Cameras, The Gatekeepers, How to Survive a Plague, The Invisible War, Searching for Sugar Man
Will win: Searching for Sugar Man
Should win: How to Survive a Plague
~ spoiler: The Gatekeepers

Ben Affleck plays with the Big Kids at the DGA Noms

Ben Affleck officially got an invitation to the big kids table as he grabbed his first DGA Nomination for his critical and commercial hit third film Argo. Affleck is the only first time nominee going against previous winners Tom Hooper (previous winner for The King’s Speech), Ang Lee (wins for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon and Brokeback Mountain), Kathryn Bigelow (won for The Hurt Locker) and Steven Spielberg who now has 11 nominations and 3 wins (The Color Purple, Schindler’s List and Saving Private Ryan)…. Left off the Director’s Guild list were David O’Russell (Silver Linings Playbook) and Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained). Take a look at the list of nominees below which is usually quite an accurate Oscar predictor and watch for the winner announcement next month.

2012 Director’s Guild Award Nominees for Motion Picture:

Ben Affleck (Argo)
Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty)
Tom Hooper (Les Miserables)
Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)

“Twilight” Opens Big but “Lincoln” is the Real Surprise at the Box Office

As expected the final installment in the craptastic Twilight series, Twilight: Breaking Dawn Pt. 2, opened to a big number at the box office this weekend. However, the more interesting news is just how well Lincoln did in its first weekend in wide release… Breaking Dawn took in a giant $141 million for the second highest opening in the franchise’s history (behind New Moon) and the 8th biggest opening of all time. As usual, the grosses are likely to be front loaded for the film, but it should finish with a respectable sum making this series one of the most profitable (despite the lack in quality) in film history…. Aside from the vamps and werewolves, a President was making some news of his own this weekend as Steven Spielberg‘s Oscar bait Lincoln far surpassed expectations to rope in a very strong $21 million. That makes it the third big studio drama after Argo and Flight to pull in very good grosses this fall. Hopefully that will be a sign that quality dramatic films should be made by the studios, not just mindless popcorn flicks… Holding up quite well in its second weekend was the James Bond smash Skyfall which took in another $41.5 million for a total of $161 million and will become the highest grossing Bond pic in the next two days…. For more on all these numbers, head to Box Office Mojo here and check out the new top ten below.

TW LW Title (click to view) Studio Weekend Gross % Change Theater Count / Change Average Total Gross Budget* Week #
1 N The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 Sum. $141,300,000 – 4,070 – $34,717 $141,300,000 $120 1
2 1 Skyfall Sony $41,500,000 -53.0% 3,505 – $11,840 $161,337,000 $200 2
3 15 Lincoln BV $21,000,000 +2,123.9% 1,775 +1,764 $11,831 $22,419,000 $65 2
4 2 Wreck-It Ralph BV $18,312,000 -44.5% 3,622 -130 $5,056 $121,479,000 $165 3
5 3 Flight Par. $8,615,000 -41.7% 2,612 +565 $3,298 $61,336,000 $31 3
6 4 Argo WB $4,070,000 -38.5% 2,210 -553 $1,842 $92,022,000 $44.5 6
7 5 Taken 2 Fox $2,100,000 -47.7% 2,063 -424 $1,018 $134,624,000 $45 7
8 8 Pitch Perfect Uni. $1,260,000 -51.0% 1,122 -269 $1,123 $62,000,000 $17 8
– 9 Here Comes the Boom Sony $1,200,000 -52.4% 1,350 -694 $889 $41,019,000 – 6
– 6 Cloud Atlas WB $900,000 -66.1% 920 -1,103 $978 $24,894,000 – 4

A Few Thoughts on today’s Oscar Nominations…

This morning Oscar nominee Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone) announced this year’s contenders and as always we saw the front runners like The Artist and Hugo grab headlines. However, we also saw some shocking snubs and some interesting inclusions. I already posted the full nominee list, so let’s take a look at a few thoughts I have on those who will be contending for this year’s Oscar.

Favorite Nomination: Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids)… I was so happy to see her included in this hilarious film. She gave a wonderfully hysterical performance that had way more layers than you might expect. Comedy needs more representation at the Oscars, so this is a nice start. (Also kudos to Kristin Wiig and her Oscar nominated script for the film).

Best Surprise: Rooney Mara and all the love for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. This fantastic film nabbed 5 nods in total. I just wish it was up for Best Pic and Director (David Fincher).
Biggest Snub: Michael Fassbender (Shame)… apparently his great performance may have been overlooked by his hot nekkid body? Or he cancelled himself out with other great turns in A Dangerous Method and Jane Eyre.

Other Big Snubs:
Leonardo DiCaprio (J. Edgar)… looks like academy members really didn’t like this film, which is a shame because Leo was great
Armie Hammer (J. Edgar)
Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk About Kevin)… another film that may have been too dark and unlikable to get it’s great star a nod.
Albert Brooks (Drive)
Drive in all other categories (except sound)
Charlize Theron, Patton Oswalt and Young Adult… apparently this acerbic dark comedy just didn’t resonate with Oscar voters. I’m sad, cuz it was a good flick.
Steven Spielberg (War Horse) for Director
Andy Serkis (Rise of the Planet of the Apes) and Alan Rickman (Harry Potter) both proved its hard to get nominated for big popcorn action films… oh and motion capture performances may never get nominated.
Elizabeth Olsen and Martha Marcy May Marlene… this great indie introduced us to a major acting star in Olsen and still got bupkiss
50/50 and Joseph Gordon Levitt… another great indie that should’ve gotten some love
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt. 2 in all big categories…. why oh why couldn’t this amazing franchise ever pull out a Best Pic nom? Especially when the final installment was clearly one of the best films of the year.

More Snubs: Shailene Woodley (The Descendants), Vanessa Redgrave (Coriolanus), Ryan Gosling (Drive, The Ides of March), The Adventures of Tin Tin (in Animated film), Carey Mulligan (Shame), the casts of The Ides of March and Midnight in Paris, Beginners for Screenplay and Director (Mike Mills)

~ And a Big Boo to the voters for dissing The Help for Screenplay, Score, Song, Costume Design and Director… That wonderful film should’ve had 9 noms, not just 4.

~While I’m complaining, I just have to say yuck to all the nods for The Tree of Life. Oy vey!

Other nice inclusions:
~Demian Bichir (A Better Life)… this wonderful performance in this small indie broke through with a SAG nod and he made the list today. I’m thrilled.
~Gary Oldman (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy)… can you believe this is his first nomination? I just wish it was for a better film.
~Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close and Max Von Sydow... I’m so happy one of my fave films of the year finally got some love. And I was kinda shocked to see it among the 9 nominees for Best Picture.
~Moneyball grabbed more noms that The Descendants, hehe….
~W.E. got into costume design. Yes, a film by Madonna got an Oscar nod. (I just wish her Golden Globe winning song “Masterpiece” had been eligible)

Speaking of Best Song….
What the heck is wrong with that category? By having a ridiculously difficult rule of the songs needing to rate 8.5 or higher by the music branch (out of 10), only 2 songs made the cut… And the one from The Muppets wasn’t even the best song from that film…
Look at all the snubbed songs that should’ve gotten mentioned:
“Life’s a Happy Song” (The Muppets)
“Pictures in My Head” (The Muppets)
“Bridge of Light” (Happy Feet 2) by P!nk
“Hello Hello” (Gnomeo & Juliet) by Elton John
“The Living Proof” (The Help) by Mary J. Blige
“Lay Down Your Head” (Albert Nobbs) by Glenn Close, etc

So, there are just a few thoughts for you… Now, let’s see who is gonna win… I’d say The Artist is still out in front despite Hugo landing the most noms…. I still have hope for The Help too.. and Meryl better win… With that said, what are your favorite noms? And who is the worst snub? Sound off below and watch for more on the Oscars in the weeks ahead.

Will a Horse going to War bring Spielberg back to the Oscars?

Steven Speilberg and war movies mean serious Oscar business. He won Best Director for both Schindler’s List and Saving Private Ryan, both films dealing with the atrocities of war. Now, he could be headed back for another go round at the Academy Awards with his latest the eagerly anticipated film War Horse based on the popular novel about a horse that is sold into the British army during World War I and his adventures trying to re-unite with his young former owner. Looking at the trailer, I’m already putting this at the top of the Oscar nom list for 2011 (that was after I dried my eyes~ it’s a tear-jerker!). In fact, I’m making bold predictions right now that it will contend for Picture, Director, Cinematography, Score, Adapted Screenplay and more…. And the source material has already been the basis for the recent Tony winning smash play of the same name currently wowing audiences on Broadway. It looks like all signs could be aligned for another sweep at the Kodak theatre. Check out the trailer below and see if you think it could go the distance and for more on the film starring newcomer Jeremy Irvine, David Thewlis (the Harry Potter films), Tom Hiddleston (Thor) and two-time Oscar nominee Emily Watson (Hilary & Jackie) head here.

War Horse